A record exodus, measured in contribution slips
New figures from Portugal’s Social Security Institute (ISS) put a hard number on something recruiters, immigrant associations and landlords have been describing anecdotally for months: foreigners are leaving the system faster than at any point on record. Data from the Portuguese Social Security Institute obtained by Expresso show 162,252 foreign employees ceased contributing to the system in 2025 and did not reappear on the register. That figure represents a 66% increase on the previous year, equivalent to an average of 455 foreign workers disappearing from the system every day, up from 267 daily in 2024.
For a country that has spent the past decade courting migrant labour to plug demographic gaps, the reversal is notable. It doesn’t mean Portugal’s foreign workforce is collapsing — new registrations are still coming in — but the rate of loss has never been this steep, and it’s showing up in every corner of the labour market, from Algarve farms to Lisbon restaurants.
Who’s leaving, and why it matters
Brazilian nationals accounted for the largest number of departures in absolute terms, with almost 60,000 disappearing from the Social Security register in 2025 and around 100,000 over the past two years. But the sharpest percentage swings came from South Asia: Indian nationals alone recorded 14,477 cessations in 2025 – up from 5,540 in 2024, and cessations among Bangladeshi workers rose from 4,609 in 2024 to 12,594 in 2025 – an increase of 173%. Departures from Portuguese-speaking African communities more than doubled too, with Guinea-Bissau nationals leaving the system at triple the previous rate.
This isn’t a one-nationality story. Social Security cessations increased among 51 of the 59 nationalities monitored, with only workers from Spain, Germany, Moldova, Netherlands, Canada, Hungary and Norway avoiding an increase. Pedro Góis, director of Portugal’s Migration Observatory, frames it as a two-track phenomenon: the figures reflect both a growing number of migrants leaving Portugal and an increasing shift towards undeclared work.
That second track matters for anyone trying to read the numbers correctly. A cessation in the ISS database doesn’t automatically mean someone boarded a plane home. Ana Paula Costa, president of Casa do Brasil, points out that the large number of Brazilians disappearing from the register did not necessarily mean they have left Portugal — many whose residence permits expired or could not be renewed have seen formal employment contracts cancelled before moving into undeclared work. In other words, part of this drop reflects AIMA’s renewal backlog pushing legally-resident people out of formal payroll and into informality, not just genuine emigration.
The AIMA and cost-of-living backdrop
None of this happens in a vacuum. Slow processing at AIMA (see our immigration hub for what current renewal timelines actually look like) has left thousands of foreign residents in limbo, unable to formally confirm status with employers even when their underlying application is sound. Community leaders quoted in the reporting also point to wages that haven’t kept pace with rent and everyday costs, pushing workers toward destinations offering better pay. Shiv Kumar Singh of Casa da Índia described the shift bluntly, saying migrants have been drawn elsewhere because “the country no longer has arguments for them to stay.”
Why the state is watching closely
The stakes go beyond individual hardship stories. Foreign workers now account for around one-fifth of all Social Security contributors and have generated a net surplus of €16.3 billion for the Portuguese state over the past decade. The system hasn’t tipped negative — the ISS recorded 539,493 new registrations of foreign employees during 2025, virtually unchanged from the previous year, and the overall Social Security migration balance remains positive, albeit on a weakening trend since 2024 — but officials are clearly nervous about direction of travel. Contributions continue to rise in 2026, but officials say the pace of growth is slowing month by month.
Sectors most exposed — agriculture, hospitality, construction — are already reporting recruitment difficulties in regions like Odemira and the Algarve, according to community organisations tracking the shift.
What to watch next
For foreigners currently weighing whether to stay, renew, or move on, three things are worth monitoring: whether AIMA’s online renewals portal actually speeds up processing through 2026; whether the government follows through on monthly publication of foreign-contributor data, which would make trends like this easier to track in real time; and whether wage growth in sectors reliant on migrant labour starts to close the gap with competing destinations. None of this changes the practical basics — anyone working in Portugal still needs a NISS, correct registration, and up-to-date paperwork with both Finanças and AIMA regardless of how the political debate unfolds. If your own permit renewal or Social Security registration has stalled, get it documented and seek advice before a formal cessation shows up against your name — our tax and NIF guide and /services/ team can point you toward the right next step.
This article was produced with AI assistance and editorial oversight in line with our editorial policy. It is general information, not legal or tax advice.