Key figures — as of 2026-09-13: Home sales fell 8.7% year-on-year in Q1 2026 to 37,745 dwellings sold, even as the national price index rose 17.8% over the same period — Statistics Portugal (INE), published 23 June 2026; residential stock listed for sale dropped 14% year-on-year in Q1 2026, with shortages recorded in 18 of 20 districts and regions — Idealista; non-resident purchases fell for a third consecutive year in 2025, with EU-resident buyers down 9.6% (4,416 homes) and non-EU buyers down 17.1% (4,055 homes).
Fewer sales, higher prices — a market moving in two directions at once
Portugal's property market is doing something unusual: transactions are shrinking while prices keep climbing. The number of homes sold fell 8.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, with 37,745 dwellings sold across the country between January and March. Over the same period, INE's latest House Price Index, published on 23 June 2026, showed Portuguese house prices rose 17.8% year-on-year in Q1 2026.
That combination — fewer deals, bigger price tags — is the clearest signal yet that supply, not demand, is the binding constraint. Idealista's own figures show residential stock on the market declined 14% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, with supply dropping in 18 of the 20 districts and autonomous regions surveyed. Fewer homes changing hands isn't a sign of cooling appetite; it's a sign there's less to buy, especially in the cities and coastal regions foreigners tend to target.
Foreign buyers are stepping back — and the numbers show why
The retreat by overseas buyers is now a multi-year trend, not a blip. Purchases by buyers with tax residence outside Portugal declined for the third consecutive year, with EU-resident buyers acquiring 4,416 dwellings in 2025, down 9.6% year-on-year, while non-EU resident buyers purchased 4,055 dwellings, down 17.1%. Idealista's analysts link this directly to policy shifts foreigners have watched unfold over the past three years: the end of the Golden Visa real estate route and the replacement of the Non-Habitual Resident regime with a more restrictive framework.
That tracks with what GrowIN sees in client enquiries — the Golden Visa's real-estate path has been closed for a while now (current options run through regulated funds, research, arts and culture, or job-creating company investment), and NHR closed to new applicants back in March 2025, replaced by the narrower IFICI regime. Buyers who once treated a Lisbon flat as a fast track to residency and a favourable tax rate no longer have that option, and it shows up in the transaction data.
Still, the foreigners who do buy aren't chasing bargains. Foreign investors often pay higher prices per square metre than domestic purchasers — 35% more in Lisbon and 17% more in Porto. Foreign buyers concentrate on Portugal's most expensive locations, particularly Greater Lisbon, the Algarve, Madeira and the Porto Metropolitan Area, markets that offer stronger international transport links, established expatriate communities and greater appeal as second-home or investment destinations. Outside those four hubs, the international buyer pool thins out fast — which is exactly where GrowIN's own enquiries suggest demand and supply pain is now concentrated for foreigners looking at inland and secondary cities.
GrowIN's read on the numbers
Annualising the Q1 2026 pace (37,745 sales × 4 ≈ 151,000 transactions for the year) against the 8,471 combined EU and non-EU non-resident purchases recorded in 2025 suggests foreign buyers now account for roughly one in eighteen property transactions nationally — a shrinking slice of a shrinking pie. That's GrowIN's own extrapolation from INE and Idealista figures, not an official projection, but it illustrates how concentrated — and how price-sensitive — the remaining foreign demand has become.
"Portugal's housing market isn't cooling — it's narrowing, with fewer sellers, pricier listings and a foreign buyer pool that's shrunk for three years running," says GrowIN Portugal Editorial.
What this means if you're buying from abroad
Expect competition to stay fierce in Lisbon, Porto, the Algarve and Madeira, where purchasers resident abroad continue to pay a higher national median price than buyers resident in Portugal, a gap likely to persist while foreign demand remains concentrated in premium segments. Outside those hubs, buyers may find more room to negotiate but also thinner listings and less established support infrastructure. Budget for the current non-resident IMT transfer tax and stamp duty on top of the purchase price, get your NIF and Portuguese bank account sorted early, and treat any pre-purchase timeline with caution — reservation to deed can take longer when inventory is this tight.
What to watch next
Watch INE's Q2 and Q3 2026 releases for whether the sales decline steepens or steadies, and keep an eye on whether the government's housing supply measures — construction incentives, planning reform — start showing up in listing numbers rather than just political rhetoric. For visa and tax context that affects foreign buying decisions, see GrowIN's relocation hub, and get in touch via services if you need help navigating a purchase as a non-resident.
Nothing here should be read as investment advice — property decisions in a market this tight deserve professional, case-by-case guidance.