Key figures — as of 2026-10-05: Portugal's House Price Index rose 16.5% year-on-year in Q2 2026, the fastest in the EU, though down from 17.8% in Q1 — INE — Foreign-resident buyers paid a national median €3,000/m² versus €2,313/m² for Portugal-resident buyers in Q1 2026, a gap of roughly 30% — INE local-level data — The foreign premium in Greater Lisbon narrowed to 34.5%, down from 49% in Q4 2025 — Transactions fell 10.5% year-on-year to 35,953 in Q1 2026 — INE's next local-level release, covering Q2 2026, is expected around 23 October.
The number that keeps repeating
Portugal has now topped the EU's house price growth table for several consecutive quarters, and the latest confirmation came at the end of September. In the second quarter of 2026, the year-on-year rate of change of the House Price Index was 16.5%, 1.3 percentage points lower than the previous quarter. Eurostat's own release, published days later, confirmed the same story at EU level: Portugal posted the fastest annual rise in the EU at 16.5 per cent, while France became one of only three member states where house prices fell, at minus 0.8 per cent.
That 1.3-point slowdown is real, but it's a deceleration from an exceptional pace, not a reversal. House prices across the euro area rose 4.0 per cent compared with a year earlier, down from 4.6 per cent in the first quarter, while across the wider EU the annual rate was 4.7 per cent, down from 5.1 per cent. Portugal remains roughly three-and-a-half times the eurozone average. For anyone relocating, that's the headline that matters: the market is still running hot by any European comparison, even as the rate of acceleration eases.
What foreigners are actually paying
The national index hides the detail that matters most to our readers — the gap between what a tax-resident buyer pays and what a foreign-resident buyer pays for the same square metre. INE's local-level statistics, which link IMT and IMI tax records rather than relying on asking prices, give the clearest picture available anywhere. In the most recent batch, covering Q1 2026: Foreign-resident buyers paid a median of €3,000/m², national-resident buyers paid a median of €2,313/m², a difference of €687/m², meaning foreign-resident buyers paid around 30% more at the national level. The gap widens sharply in the capital region: In Greater Lisbon, the foreign-buyer median was 34.5% higher than the national-buyer median.
That Lisbon figure is actually a retreat. The previous local-level release, covering Q4 2025, had shown foreign buyers paying a median €2,934/m² nationally — roughly 35% above residents — with the Greater Lisbon gap running as high as 49%. If the Q2 2026 figures due this month confirm that the premium is still compressing rather than widening, it will be the first solid evidence that international demand is losing some of its edge at the very top of the market, even as the underlying index keeps climbing.
GrowIN's calculation: what the gap costs in practice
INE publishes the premium as a percentage; we've converted it into something more tangible. On a typical 90m² apartment priced at the Q1 2026 national median, a foreign-resident buyer paying the €3,000/m² median rather than the €2,313/m² resident median would hand over roughly €61,830 more for an equivalent-sized home. Separately, because the national median itself rose from €1,951/m² a year earlier to €2,337/m² in Q1 2026, that same 90m² property also cost around €34,740 more than it would have in the same quarter of 2025 — before any foreign-buyer premium is even factored in. Those two numbers stack, which is why agents in Lisbon and the Algarve describe international clients as price-takers rather than price-setters right now.
"Portugal's housing market isn't cooling so much as recalibrating who still has room to pay the premium," says GrowIN Portugal Editorial.
Why the gap exists — and why it isn't proof of overcharging
INE and independent analysts are consistent on the cause: it reflects buying patterns rather than discriminatory pricing. Foreign buyers may be more likely to buy new-build, renovated or higher-specification properties, which generally command higher prices per square metre, and differences in purchasing power can further influence the result — the figures show a clear difference in buying patterns, rather than proving that foreign and national buyers are being charged different prices for equivalent homes. Supply remains the deeper structural issue: limited new construction against persistent demand, both domestic and from returning diaspora and international buyers, keeps upward pressure on the whole market.
What to watch on 23 October
INE's local-level house price statistics — the only official series that separates foreign-resident from resident buyers at municipal level — are due for their Q2 2026 update around 23 October, based on last year's equivalent release timing. Three things to watch: whether the national 30% premium narrows further, whether Greater Lisbon's gap keeps falling from 34.5%, and whether the transaction count — down 10.5% year-on-year in Q1 2026 — stabilises or keeps shrinking. A falling premium alongside falling transactions would suggest foreign demand is pulling back at the margin, not that homes are getting cheaper.
Anyone weighing a purchase this autumn should read the release against the backdrop of Portugal's new flat IMT rate structure for non-residents and budget accordingly — our relocation guide covers the full buying process, costs and common pitfalls for newcomers. Outcomes in any given municipality will depend on local supply, financing conditions and what the Q2 data actually shows once INE publishes it — treat all of the above as directional, not a guarantee of where prices go next.