Key figures — as of 2026-08-10: 3-month Euribor hit 2.498% on 4 August — a new high since March 2025 — before easing to 2.474% by 8 August — 6-month Euribor peaked at 2.724% on 4 August, a level not seen since November 2024, then settled at 2.683% — 12-month Euribor fell to 2.898% on 4 August and to 2.898%/2.898% area by 8 August (2.898%→2.898%, easing further to 2.898%) — the ECB's next rate-setting meeting is 9–10 September 2026 in Berlin.
A curve that's pulling in two directions
Home loan shoppers watching the daily Euribor fixings this week are looking at a genuinely awkward chart. On 4 August, the 3-month rate climbed to 2.498%, "mais 0,037 pontos que na segunda-feira e um novo máximo desde março de 2025." The 6-month rate — the one that actually matters most in Portugal — did the same thing, rising to 2.724%, up 0.019 points and "um novo máximo desde novembro de 2024." The 12-month rate, meanwhile, went the other way, dropping to 2.927%, down 0.012 points from the previous session.
By 8 August all three tenors had cooled a little from those peaks — 3-month sat at 2.474%, 6-month at 2.683% and 12-month at 2.898% — but the underlying shape hasn't changed: short and medium tenors pushing up against multi-year highs, the 12-month easing off. That's the "split curve" foreign buyers are trying to read this month.
Why does this matter to someone shopping for a mortgage from abroad? Because in Portugal, the 6-month Euribor became the most commonly used index for variable-rate home loans back in January 2024, and it's not a niche reference — Bank of Portugal data for June show 6-month Euribor accounted for 39.9% of the outstanding stock of variable-rate mortgages for permanent homes, with 12-month at 31.3% and 3-month at 24.38%. Most buyers, foreign or Portuguese, are exposed to exactly the tenor that just hit a 21-month high.
Why the curve inverted, briefly
The move traces back to the European Central Bank. At its June meeting the ECB raised its key rates by 0.25 percentage points — the first hike since September 2023 — after holding steady in April for a seventh consecutive meeting and following eight cuts since the easing cycle began in June 2024. Short and medium-term Euribor tenors reacted almost immediately, pricing in a tighter near-term stance. The 12-month rate, which reflects market expectations further out, has been sliding on the assumption that this hiking cycle is a one-off correction rather than the start of a sustained run — hence the odd spectacle of 3-month and 6-month grinding higher while 12-month drifts down.
The average Euribor for 2026 so far sits at 2.402%, up 0.271 points on last year — a reminder that even with this month's wobble, borrowing costs remain materially higher than the low-rate years many recent arrivals in Portugal will remember from house-hunting research done in 2023 or earlier.
The euro-and-cents question: does the split actually matter?
GrowIN Portugal ran the numbers on what this specific gap means in practice. Take a fairly typical non-resident purchase: a €200,000 mortgage over 30 years with a 1% bank spread. Index it to the 6-month rate (2.683%) and the estimated monthly instalment comes to roughly €918. Index the same loan to the 12-month rate (2.898%) and it rises to around €943 — a difference of about €25 a month, or roughly €300 a year, purely from choosing which Euribor tenor sits inside the contract. It's not a fortune, but it's real money for someone also juggling a NIF application, a Portuguese bank account and currency conversion costs on the way in.
"A split Euribor curve doesn't tell foreign buyers which way rates are heading — it tells them the market itself hasn't decided yet," says GrowIN Portugal Editorial.
What this means for fixed vs variable
Banks in Portugal typically price fixed-rate offers off the longer end of the curve, so a softer 12-month Euribor should, in theory, filter through to slightly friendlier fixed quotes over the coming weeks — though banks adjust with a lag and add their own margin. Variable-rate borrowers tied to 6-month Euribor are the ones most exposed to this month's spike, since the 6-month rate "é o índice de referência na maioria dos contratos de crédito habitação com taxa variável" in Portugal. For a foreign buyer signing a CPCV now and heading to the notary in the autumn, that argues for at least getting a fixed-rate quote alongside the standard variable one before committing, rather than assuming variable is automatically cheaper because it has been for most of the past two years.
What to watch next
The ECB's 9–10 September meeting in Berlin is the next real catalyst — a hold would likely let the curve settle, while any hint of a further hike would push short and medium tenors higher again. Buyers already mid-purchase should ask their bank for both a fixed and a variable simulation before the deed, and confirm exactly which Euribor tenor (3, 6 or 12-month) their contract will actually reference, since that choice alone is now worth hundreds of euros a year. For the wider process of buying and financing a home as a non-resident — NIF, bank account, notary timeline — see GrowIN's relocation hub.
Euribor's mixed message this August is really a market shrug: nobody, including the banks writing these mortgages, is fully certain which direction August's numbers point next.