Key figures — as of 2026-10-05: Submission-to-biometrics wait for new Golden Visa (ARI) applications runs 18–24 months, with a further 9–12 months to card issuance — total timelines can still stretch past three years for legacy files; Minister of the Presidency António Leitão Amaro told Parliament in October 2025 that AIMA would clear the backlog during 2026, generating roughly €85 million in fee revenue; the fund-route minimum investment remains €500,000 via CMVM-regulated vehicles; government has floated — but not yet legislated — a 20% flat tax on local income plus a 10-year exemption on most foreign income for new residents.
The queue hasn't disappeared — it's just moved
Anyone filing a Golden Visa application through AIMA this autumn should plan around a specific number: depending on AIMA's backlog and case complexity, processing from the online application submission to the biometric appointment can take between 18 and 24 months. That's the realistic current window — not the 90-day legal target that's been missed for years. And biometrics isn't the finish line: after completing biometrics, applicants can expect an additional 9 to 12 months before the residence permit is issued.
Add those stages together and a new applicant filing today is looking at roughly three years before holding a physical residence card — a figure that tracks with what specialist advisers have been quoting investors for much of 2026.
The backlog is not new. It dates back to the chaotic 2023 handover from the old SEF border service to AIMA, which inherited hundreds of thousands of unresolved immigration files alongside the Golden Visa queue. What's changed is the politics around it. During the 2026 State Budget hearings, Leitão Amaro announced that AIMA will resolve outstanding golden visa applications in 2026, generating 85 million euros in revenue for the agency. The government said it had opted to prioritise immigrants with greater financial difficulties ahead of Golden Visa investors, who pay the highest fees but were pushed to the back of the queue "for reasons of social equity," as the minister put it.
That admission has not aged well with the legal community. Investor lawyers have since pointed out that the 2026 nationality law reform — which stretched the naturalisation residency clock to seven or ten years and now starts counting only once a residence permit is actually issued — makes every month of AIMA delay directly costlier for clients racing against that clock. For background on the citizenship timeline itself, see our /news/ coverage of the May 2026 nationality law.
Tax sweeteners: real proposal, no legislation yet
Alongside the processing mess, the government keeps signalling it wants to make the programme more attractive on the tax side. Proposed changes floated by the minister include a 20% flat tax on local income and a ten-year exemption on most foreign income for new residents — effectively a broader, investor-friendly cousin of the narrower IFICI regime that already exists.
That distinction matters. IFICI currently applies to a select group — scientists, researchers, tech and innovation professionals and other highly qualified roles — and does not apply broadly to investors, entrepreneurs, or retirees. What's reportedly under discussion is something wider: a standing perk aimed squarely at Golden Visa capital, not just skilled hires. Amaro has been consistent that the core programme itself isn't going anywhere — "there's no plan to end it. It's not on the table" — but has stopped short of publishing draft legislation or a timeline for when (or whether) the tax perk becomes law. Treat it as a direction of travel, not a confirmed benefit, until it appears in a Diário da República decree or a Portal das Finanças circular.
GrowIN's take: the real cost of waiting
Here's the number nobody in the official statements quotes: opportunity cost. A Golden Visa investor committing €500,000 to a CMVM-regulated fund accepts that capital is effectively locked up — typically five years minimum — before a residence permit is even confirmed. If that same €500,000 could otherwise have earned a conservative 5% annually elsewhere, an extra 18–24 months of AIMA delay represents roughly €37,500–€50,000 in foregone return, purely from the queue itself, before any tax question is even on the table. That's GrowIN's own calculation, not an official figure — but it's the kind of math serious investors are already running before they commit.
"The Golden Visa's real price tag in 2026 isn't the €500,000 — it's the two years of patience that capital has to sit through first," says GrowIN Portugal Editorial.
What to watch
Three things will tell you whether 2026 is actually different from 2025 and 2024, both of which saw similar "this is the year we clear it" promises: whether AIMA's Portal das Renovações starts reporting measurable movement on legacy pre-2024 files; whether the tax perk proposal makes it into a formal budget bill rather than staying a ministerial talking point; and whether the pending Ombudsman and court challenges from investor consortiums produce any binding ruling on the citizenship-clock dispute. None of that changes what applicants should do today: file a complete, clean application, expect 18–24 months to biometrics as the realistic floor, and get professional tax advice before assuming any new incentive will apply to your situation. For the current state of routes, costs and eligibility, see our visas hub, and talk to our team via services before committing capital.
Outcomes on both the timeline and the tax perks depend entirely on decisions AIMA and the Ministry of the Presidency haven't yet finalised — investors should verify the current position directly with AIMA and Portal das Finanças before acting.