Key figures — as of 2026-09-07: 39% of Portuguese say their economic situation is worse than a year ago, versus 14% who say it improved — 63% expect the cost of living to keep rising through the end of 2026, against just 11% expecting prices to fall — findings from the Barómetro DN/Aximage, fieldwork conducted in 2026, margin of error ±4.4%.
A gloomy national mood, and why it matters beyond Portugal
The headline number isn't really 39% — it's 63%. A recent Barómetro DN/Aximage found 39% of respondents say their economic situation is worse than a year ago, while 63% believe the cost of living will keep rising through the end of 2026. Only 11% think prices will come down, and just 14% say their own finances actually improved over the past year, according to the same survey. For anyone already living in Portugal, this is background noise confirming what the supermarket receipt already says. For someone abroad still weighing a move — filling out a D7 or D8 application, comparing rents on a spreadsheet — it's a flag worth pausing on: the country isn't just expensive by Northern European standards, locals themselves think it's getting worse, not better.
The poll, carried out by Aximage for DN, also found 14% of respondents consider that the economic situation improved, while 47% say it stayed practically the same over the last year. That middle group — nearly half the country reporting stagnation rather than progress — is arguably the more revealing figure: it suggests wage growth simply isn't keeping pace with the visible cost of housing, food and services, even where headline inflation has cooled.
What's actually driving the pessimism
The survey doesn't isolate a single cause, but the timing lines up with a rough few months. The topic gained new weight in recent weeks after pressure on fuel prices caused by instability in the Middle East, and a related Aximage barometer from earlier this year found 94% of respondents admit to being apprehensive about rising fuel prices and inflation. Perception also splits along political lines: economic deterioration is particularly pronounced among voters who identify with opposition parties, with nearly half of PS and Chega voters (both 47%) considering themselves worse off than a year ago. Even so, the direction of travel — worse now, expected to get worse still — cuts across the political spectrum, which is usually a sign the underlying pressure is structural rather than partisan noise.
The GrowIN calculation: what this means for a nomad's buffer
Here's the number the poll doesn't give you, but that matters for anyone actually planning a budget. The D8 Digital Nomad Visa currently requires proof of income around €3,680/month (four times the €920 national minimum wage) plus roughly €11,040 in savings. If the cost pressure Portuguese households are already reporting translates into even a modest 3% rise in day-to-day living costs by year-end — a conservative read given the 63% who expect increases — that's an extra ~€110 a month eaten out of a nomad's budget, or close to €1,300 over a year. Against the required €11,040 savings cushion, that's the equivalent of losing roughly a month's worth of buffer to inflation alone, before rent renegotiations or currency swings are even factored in. This is GrowIN Portugal's own estimate, built on official visa thresholds, not a figure from the barometer itself — but it shows why "meeting the minimum" on paper can still leave newcomers thin in practice.
GrowIN Portugal Editorial says: when most of a country's own citizens expect their cost of living to keep rising, that's not a reason to cancel a move to Portugal — it's a reason to budget for more than the legal minimum.
Practical takeaways for anyone planning a move
None of this changes the legal thresholds for visas or tax residency — those are fixed figures set by AIMA and the Autoridade Tributária, not by public sentiment. But sentiment data like this is a useful sanity check when building a household budget: if locals with established jobs and networks feel squeezed, a newcomer without those cushions should assume rents, groceries and utilities will trend upward rather than flat over the next 12 months. Padding savings estimates by 10–15% above the stated visa minimum, rather than budgeting to the exact euro, is the more realistic approach GrowIN sees work in practice. Our relocation planning guide walks through how to build a realistic first-year budget before you apply.
What to watch next
Aximage and DN run this barometer on a rolling basis, so expect an updated read before the end of 2026 that will show whether the 63% pessimism figure hardens or softens once (or if) fuel and food prices stabilise. Anyone with an active D7, D8 or Golden Visa application should also keep an eye on the Bank of Portugal's growth and inflation projections, which feed into the political debate around government support measures — currently rated insufficient by a large majority of respondents in the same barometer series. As always on visa and tax matters, treat published thresholds as a floor, not a comfortable target, and get current figures confirmed with a professional before committing to a move.