# Euribor's Split Curve in August Confuses Foreign Mortgage Buyers

> Short-term Euribor hit new highs in early August while the 12-month rate eased, leaving foreign buyers in Portugal split on fixed vs variable.

- Source: https://www.growinportugal.com/news/euribor-s-split-august-curve-sends-mixed-signals-to-foreign-2026-08-10
- Publisher: GrowIN Portugal (https://www.growinportugal.com)
- Published: 2026-08-10
- Last reviewed: 2026-09-01
- Language: en

> **Key figures — as of 2026-08-10:** 3-month Euribor hit **2.498%** on 4 August — a new high since March 2025 — before easing to **2.474%** by 8 August — 6-month Euribor peaked at **2.724%** on 4 August, a level not seen since November 2024, then settled at **2.683%** — 12-month Euribor fell to **2.927%** on 4 August, easing further to **2.898%** by 8 August — the ECB's next rate-setting meeting is **9–10 September 2026** in Berlin.

## A Curve That's Pulling in Two Directions

Home loan shoppers watching the daily Euribor fixings this week are looking at a genuinely awkward chart. On 4 August, the 3-month rate climbed to 2.498%, "mais 0,037 pontos que na segunda-feira e um novo máximo desde março de 2025." The 6-month rate — the one that actually matters most in Portugal — did the same thing, rising to 2.724%, up 0.019 points and "um novo máximo desde novembro de 2024." The 12-month rate, meanwhile, went the other way, dropping to 2.927%, down 0.012 points from the previous session.

By 8 August all three tenors had cooled a little from those peaks — 3-month sat at 2.474%, 6-month at 2.683% and 12-month at 2.898% — but the underlying shape hasn't changed: short and medium tenors pushing up against multi-year highs, the 12-month easing off. That's the "split curve" foreign buyers are trying to read this month.

Why does this matter to someone shopping for a mortgage from abroad? Because in Portugal, the 6-month Euribor became the most commonly used index for variable-rate home loans back in January 2024, and it's not a niche reference — Bank of Portugal data for June show 6-month Euribor accounted for 39.9% of the outstanding stock of variable-rate mortgages for permanent homes, with 12-month at 31.3% and 3-month at 24.38%. Most buyers, foreign or Portuguese, are exposed to exactly the tenor that just hit a 21-month high.

## Why the Curve Inverted, Briefly

The move traces back to the European Central Bank. At its June meeting the ECB raised its key rates by 0.25 percentage points — the first hike since September 2023 — after holding steady in April for a seventh consecutive meeting and following eight cuts since the easing cycle began in June 2024. Short and medium-term Euribor tenors reacted almost immediately, pricing in a tighter near-term stance. The 12-month rate, which reflects market expectations further out, has been sliding on the assumption that this hiking cycle is a one-off correction rather than the start of a sustained run — hence the odd spectacle of 3-month and 6-month grinding higher while 12-month drifts down.

The average Euribor for 2026 so far sits at 2.402%, up 0.271 points on last year — a reminder that even with this month's wobble, borrowing costs remain materially higher than the low-rate years many recent arrivals in Portugal will remember from house-hunting research done in 2023 or earlier.

## The Euro-and-Cents Question: Does the Split Actually Matter?

GrowIN Portugal ran the numbers on what this specific gap means in practice. Take a fairly typical non-resident purchase: a €200,000 mortgage over 30 years with a 1% bank spread. Index it to the 6-month rate (2.683%) and the estimated monthly instalment comes to roughly €918. Index the same loan to the 12-month rate (2.898%) and it rises to around €943 — a difference of about **€25 a month, or roughly €300 a year**, purely from choosing which Euribor tenor sits inside the contract. It's not a fortune, but it's real money for someone also juggling a NIF application, a Portuguese bank account and currency conversion costs on the way in.

"A split Euribor curve doesn't tell foreign buyers which way rates are heading — it tells them the market itself hasn't decided yet," says GrowIN Portugal Editorial.

## What This Means for Fixed vs Variable

Banks in Portugal typically price fixed-rate offers off the longer end of the curve, so a softer 12-month Euribor should, in theory, filter through to slightly friendlier fixed quotes over the coming weeks — though banks adjust with a lag and add their own margin. Variable-rate borrowers tied to 6-month Euribor are the ones most exposed to this month's spike, since the 6-month rate "é o índice de referência na maioria dos contratos de crédito habitação com taxa variável" in Portugal. For a foreign buyer signing a CPCV now and heading to the notary in the autumn, that argues for at least getting a fixed-rate quote alongside the standard variable one before committing, rather than assuming variable is automatically cheaper because it has been for most of the past two years.

## What to Watch Next

The ECB's 9–10 September meeting in Berlin is the next real catalyst — a hold would likely let the curve settle, while any hint of a further hike would push short and medium tenors higher again. Buyers already mid-purchase should ask their bank for both a fixed and a variable simulation before the deed, and confirm exactly which Euribor tenor (3, 6 or 12-month) their contract will actually reference, since that choice alone is now worth hundreds of euros a year. For the wider process of buying and financing a home as a non-resident — NIF, bank account, notary timeline — see GrowIN's [relocation](/relocation/) hub.

Euribor's mixed message this August is really a market shrug: nobody, including the banks writing these mortgages, is fully certain which direction August's numbers point next.

## Sources

- [DNOTICIAS.PT](https://www.dnoticias.pt/2026/8/4/501347-euribor-sobe-para-novos-maximos-a-tres-e-seis-meses/)
- [ComparaJá](https://www.comparaja.pt/credito-habitacao/euribor-hoje)
- [idealista](https://www.idealista.pt/news/euribor/anual/evolucao-ano-atual/)

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© GrowIN Portugal. Cite as: GrowIN Portugal, "Euribor's Split Curve in August Confuses Foreign Mortgage Buyers", https://www.growinportugal.com/news/euribor-s-split-august-curve-sends-mixed-signals-to-foreign-2026-08-10